The use of multiple systems, each optimized for one particular TSP fund, will substantially decrease market risk by reducing market draw downs (Mdd). Following multiple trend following systems simultaneously for a single TSP fund produces a very smooth performance profile by decreasing the risk of any one particular system signal.
TSP Pilot utilizes 3-4 sets of non-correlated systems to time EACH equity fund in the Thrift Savings Plan. TSP Pilot systems are based on a finite, objective and quantitative set of trend following, pattern recognition and seasonal criteria. Each system, while optimized individually for each TSP fund, will be very robust and reliable under many different market conditions even when applied across the full range of TSP funds.
While not the most effective approach, each system can be used to successfully trade ANY of the five TSP funds. However, we back test, optimize and match the systems to each of the three funds to further improve results. The TSP Pilot systems are remarkably stable over a wide range of parameters (variables) providing for a very reliable improvement in TSP results over standard buy-and-hold or balanced portfolios.
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