FidSel Program Performance


Table VII shows the back tested and current results from 1989 through 2006 for the current TSP Pilot FidSel Program. Results assume a 100% commitment to the Program, but we would recommend an 80% commitment to provide a little additional safety margin.

A $10,000 commitment to the Program in 1988 would be worth over $2.1 million before taxes and commissions at the end of the 18 year period ending 2004. Even though the performance numbers here have been based on extensive backtesting and parametric optimization techniques, the performance numbers have NOT been curve fitted and are based on relatively simple fund timing systems with considerable number of degrees of statistical freedom.

A conservative projection of future returns may take 10 percentage points off the average annual return shown below which still leaves a VERY respectable average return around 30%/year. The comparison performance numbers speak for themselves.

Again, for diversification we would suggest splitting your non-TSP funds equally between our FidSel Program and our new ETFs Program. To see how much a split FidSel/ETFs Program would improve performance over following either one alone see the ETFs



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