Successful fund timers will universally admit that it is virtually impossible to PREDICT where stock prices will be on some future date. Since equity market values increase over time, it may be relatively safe to assume that stock prices will generally be higher over the long term.
However, while all short term price prediction models are guesses at best, the market trend is always "your friend." Major research studies have shown conclusively that stock prices do generally TREND in one direction or another over time. The opposing argument, called "random walk," has largely been discredited. Those research studies have shown that timing systems and models that effectively track and follow the major market TRENDS, over extended time periods and market cycles, can find an advantage over those investors who simply buy and hold stock funds indefinitely.
That important limiting of market risk exposure through TSP Pilot's fund timing systems puts your account at an immediate advantage by preserving your hard-earned capital during bear markets for the important future bull markets certain to come.
Instead of spinning your wheels and wringing your hands while sitting through market down cycles (the unfortunate fate of "buy-and-hold" investors) your TSP account will often be at a substantially higher value, and with more of your money at work for you, when a new up cycle in the stock funds begins. That is because TSP Pilot will have sidelined your account into the safe harbor of the Treasury G Fund while your peers, still invested in the TSP stock funds, will be watching as their accounts suffer losses.
That avoidance of most of the major market downturns hugely amplifies your TSP account's returns over time by reducing your account's exposure to market risk and dramatically improving your "sleep-at-night" factor. That reduction in market risk enables a collateral increase in stock fund allocations during the bull markets--and THAT'S where the difference is.
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